I posted the above on Threads, and some folks questioned whether this could actually be true. So let me run you through the math. Granted, some of these numbers are best estimates. Undercounting is probably happening on both sides of the argument. But when you see how outlandishly far apart the outcome is, you’ll realize that the statement is absolutely true.
Estimates of the number of illegal immigrants in the United States is roughly 14 million, by Pew, in 2023. Or 16 million by CIS in 2025. A Cato analysis of murders by undocumented immigrants in Texas found 473 convictions between 2013 and 2022. The same study calculated 2.2 convictions per 100,000 undocumented immigrants per year, using total population as a denominator. (Compare that to 3.0 for U.S.-born residents.) We’ve long known that Americans are more deadly than illegal immigrants, but what about comparing to ICE agents?
The Cato study looked at a roughly ten year period in Texas. Extrapolating to the overall US population of undocumented immigrants, you get roughly 300 convicted murders per year. That sounds like a lot, right?! Enough to get really angry and be a full-time racist on social media and at every Thanksgiving dinner. Almost enough to ignore the fact that Americans born in the United States kill far more than this every year. Keep in mind that 14-16 million people is a far bigger number than the number of ICE agents walking around with masks and guns. We are looking at whether a single ICE agent is more dangerous than a single illegal immigrant. Who is more likely to kill you?
In January of 2026, ICE had grown to about 22,000 staff. That’s all staff, not just armed enforcement. There are two ways that giving this number is a benefit to ICE and works against my thesis (I try to do that with every number selected, to give the counter-argument as much power here as possible. You’ll see that it doesn’t dent my thesis one bit). One way this helps the pro-ICE argument is that total staff undercounts how dangerous the enforcement arm has become. It also inflates the numbers by going with the rapidly growing and recent estimate, which highlights how much more dangerous ICE was in previous years on a per-capita basis.
I should also point out here that similar enforcement under Biden and Obama also resulted in unnecessary deaths. This isn’t an anti-Trump rant. I don’t wear pictures of Biden or Obama or fly flags with their faces on them. I don’t belong to a cult, and if you’re in one, it’s hard to imagine that other people aren’t. This is a rant against racism, against treating civil violations as felonies, and against thinking a masked madman can be judge, jury, and executioner in a functioning civilization.
The ICE list, which is assembled from reports and documented cases, counted 68 deaths in ICE or CBP custody between January of 2025 and October of 2026. Four people have been shot by traffic stops by ICE in the last year alone. So roughly 59 deaths per 100,000 workforce-years for ICE, compared to roughly 2.2 homicides per year for undocumented immigrants. Almost a 30X higher rate.
A lot of these numbers would have to be WAY off to think undocumented immigrants are more dangerous than ICE. You’d also have to be insane to think a masked, armed mob should be shooting people for civil violations, while also supporting a president convicted of more than 30 felonies and sexual assault. Like, seriously crazy. Fucking bonkers, even.
The number of actual deaths caused by inhumane immigration enforcement is likely much higher. Women are getting pregnant in detention. The only men around them are guards. People are dying who are not getting reported, including US citizens who are being sent to countries they’ve never been to before. Children are sitting in courtrooms by themselves. Families are being ripped apart. Supporting ICE is supporting rape, murder, and the destruction of households. It’s the most inhumane thing we are currently doing, the least Christ-like, and you are in a demented, evil cult if you are unable to see any of this.
By the way, do you know what the definition of a concentration camp is? A concentration camp is a prison or facility where a government or military detains civilians, political prisoners, or targeted demographic groups without trial, usually under harsh conditions.
I’m not sorry if any of this hurts your feelings. Be better.
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